Why the numbers show Aprilia’s threat to Ducati is an illusion

We live in the age of immediacy, and that brings both advantages and drawbacks. In the media world, there is barely any time left for the kind of reflection that gives true perspective. The undeniable steps made by Aprilia this year led many bold voices to claim that Ducati’s dominance in recent seasons was now under threat from the Noale manufacturer — one that has found in Marco Bezzecchi the pillar that Jorge Martin could not provide while being tormented by injury.

However, a deep dive into the data from this season suggests that the Ducati stagnation so often discussed in the paddock is nothing more than an illusion.

Ducati’s absolute numbers this year fell short of its impressive 2024 season. But last year was a record-breaking campaign for the red bikes: 19 wins from a possible 20 (95%), 53 podiums out of 60 (88.3%), and a clean sweep of the rostrum in 14 grands prix. In total, Ducati scored 722 points out of a maximum of 740 — an astonishing 98% strike rate.

This time around, the figures aren’t quite as extraordinary, but they are not far off either: 17 wins from 22 races (77.3%), which was achieved by four different riders. Add to that 44 podiums from 66 (66.6%) and seven grands prix with three Ducati riders on the podium. In the end, the factory collected 768 points out of a possible 814, or 94% of the maximum points available over the 2025 season.

The opulence of 2024 has waned, yes, but the idea that the 2025 statistics are significantly weaker is far less clear. In fact, this has still been the second-best season in Ducati’s history. And, crucially, several factors have had an undeniable impact on the slight regression.

Two of those factors stand out above all: Ducati went from running eight bikes to six, and Marc Marquez — its spearhead — suffered a serious injury at the start of the Indonesian Grand Prix. As a result of the damage to his already wearied right arm, he missed the final four rounds of the season. Coincidence or not, three of Aprilia’s four wins this year (Australia, Portugal, and Valencia) came during the period when Marquez was absent.

It is also worth noting that until Australia — the first race Marquez missed — Ducati had won 16 of the 18 events held, with the only exceptions being Silverstone, where Bezzecchi triumphed after Fabio Quartararo’s Yamaha engine expired, and Le Mans, where the rain handed Johann Zarco and his Honda an unlikely opportunity.

Additionally, Pramac’s departure — becoming Yamaha’s satellite team — meant Ducati lost two Desmosedicis on the grid, a 25% reduction in firepower. And not just any quarter, but the reigning world championship team from 2024, which had contributed three wins and 16 podiums through Martin, who ultimately became that year’s world champion.

Aprilia, for its part, climbed from one win in 2024 (Maverick Vinales in Austin) to four this season — three from Bezzecchi and one from Raul Fernandez (Australia). That lone Texas victory in 2024 had also been the team’s only podium in an otherwise difficult year, whereas in 2025 Aprilia uncorked the Prosecco 11 times. Its 302-point tally from last year (41% of the total available) have grown to 418 points (51.4%) — an increase of 10 percentage points.

Recording the second-largest improvement among manufacturers, surpassed only by Honda, is certainly reason to be proud. But believing this automatically makes Aprilia a genuine threat to Ducati is a conclusion that even Bezzecchi does not share — at least not yet.

“We would like to be rivals of Ducati, but every year is a new story and nothing can be taken for granted,» Bezzecchi said in Valencia, before securing his third win that same Sunday.

«We must keep this mentality of focusing on our work. Ducati will start as the favourite. Marc won the title with five races to spare, so two victories are not enough for me to consider myself at his level.” 

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— The Motorsport.com Team