Last Saturday, after crashing out on the third lap of the sprint race at Sepang while fighting his rival for the win and the championship crown, Francesco Bagnaia was both hurt and bewildered. The reigning world champion was unable to find a rational explanation for the five zeroes he has accumulated so far in the sprint races which, as he himself pointed out, have been decisive in leaving Jorge Martin a step away from the title.

The Pramac rider will be celebrating in 10 days’ time if he is able to win the sprint, in which he has built a large part of his championship chances, at the Barcelona season finale that replaces the cancelled Valencia GP.

«I just need to improve my performance on Saturdays. I have to understand why I have failed so much, work on it. On Sundays, I was at a high level, but it was the sprint that made the difference,» lamented factory Ducati rider Bagnaia.

The results achieved by the two riders are frightening, and put them on a level unattainable for the rest. Paradoxically, Bagnaia is very close to losing a world championship which, numerically speaking, is his best season since he has been competing in MotoGP.

His performance in the Sunday races has been phenomenal, with 10 victories and 15 podiums out of a possible 19. In the longer races, Bagnaia has scored 345 of his 461 total points. Subtraction indicates that the Turin native has scored 116 points on Saturdays, 48 fewer than Martin’s tally of 164.

In the amount of sprint wins, they are more or less on a par (seven to Martin’s six), but the contrast between them is in the number of retirements. Bagnaia has five to his opponent’s two.

Jorge Martin, Pramac Racing, Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team crash

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Statistics need to be interpreted and context needs to be added. In the era before the weekend format change introduced in 2023, only counting Sunday results, Bagnaia would lead the overall standings with a 24-point cushion and would be just one point away from becoming a three-time world champion in the premium class.

But that model of championship is now a thing of the past, and the current situation highlights one of Martin’s strengths.

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«We already knew that one of Jorge’s strengths was his explosiveness, and now he has found a way to maximise that,» Pramac team manager Gino Borsoi tells Autosport. «To understand his form and the records he has set, I would point to that explosiveness and the mentality he has adopted this year.

It would be unfair to conclude that the reigning champion has failed if we consider that nobody has won more than him in a year in which he has broken all the individual records of any Ducati rider

«Now he goes out to race knowing that he is not obliged to always win, but that the important thing is to perform well, bring the bike back, and then let the standings be the judge.»

Apart from the points on offer, the main difference between Saturday and Sunday races is that the bikes are not as fine-tuned in the former as they are in the latter. In this sense, it is no coincidence that Bagnaia, one of the most methodical riders on the grid, tends to make a big jump in performance between Saturday and Sunday.

Combined with his enormous talent and his temperance, the two-time champion makes the most of the working method established at Ducati since the arrival of Gigi Dall’Igna in 2014. Based on the collection and analysis of the information provided by the eight Desmosedici at the Bolognese constructor, this protocol allows the performance of the bikes to be optimised much more quickly and efficiently throughout the weekend.

The most useful test bench for drawing conclusions is the sprint race. Until then, the technicians have ‘only’ three practice sessions to analyse and look for the best set-up.

Martin has regularly managed to find the limit quickly in sprints, where Bagnaia tends to take longer to come to the boil

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

«Jorge adapts very well and very quickly to the bike from the moment he gets on the bike on Friday morning,» an authoritative voice from Ducati tells Autosport. «On the other hand, with Pecco we often see that he grows as the practices go by.

«It’s usually on Sundays that he makes the difference, because the people around him have been able to collate all the information available. With all those resources, he usually arrives at the most decisive moment with the bike completely to his liking.»

«From the outside, without knowing all the details, you get the feeling that Pecco arrives a little bit more precise at the sprint, but then, with all the information from the rest of the Ducati team, about tyre consumption, electronic set-up and so on, he makes that leap that is reflected on Sundays,» adds a track engineer from a rival team which works with one of the world champions on the grid.

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In Malaysia, this feeling was once again evident, not so much because of Saturday’s slip-up, but because of the victory the following day. Bagnaia’s 10th win has sublimated Ducati’s method, despite the fact that it is practically impossible to retain the title in Barcelona.

Should that happen, it would be unfair to conclude that the reigning champion has failed if we consider that nobody has won more than him in a year in which he has broken all the individual records of any Ducati rider. In any case, it will be that Martin’s reading has been more accurate.

Bagnaia faces an uphill struggle to win his third world title despite winning 10 Grands Prix in 2024

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

«When you win 10 grands prix and you are still 24 points behind, something is wrong.»

Complaints about a format by a competitor who has failed to master that format must always be read with due caution. They are to be expected. But Francesco Bagnaia may just have a point when it comes to the influence of sprint races on the 2024 MotoGP title battle.

To recap the situation heading into the final round, Bagnaia comes into the Barcelona weekend as a long shot despite having won 10 grands prix to the three triumphs of points leader Jorge Martin. The Spaniard’s advantage can be traced to his seven wins in MotoGP’s sprint races as well as numerous falls for Bagnaia on Saturdays.

To be clear, Bagnaia is making no excuses for his sprint travails. He is honest about those to the point where you have to take his «something is wrong» statement as a little more than sour grapes.

«Jorge was just better on Saturdays this season and we have to say he did a really good job there,» said Bagnaia following his latest Saturday fall in Malaysia. He is also happy to tip his hat to Martin’s ability to find pace with limited or zero preparation time.

«Yesterday Jorge just went straight on track and did a 1m56.996s, just like that,» said Bagnaia with a snap of the fingers as he reflected on Martin’s record-breaking first run in Q2 at Sepang. «The speed with which he can adapt [to set a quick time] is something unbelievable.»

Bagnaia celebrated his 10th Grand Prix victory of the year in Malaysia on Sunday, but it followed another sprint disappointment that edged Martin closer to the crown

Photo by: Dorna

Given that the sprints come earlier in the weekend, when Bagnaia is usually still fine-tuning his package, this phenomenon has been an important factor in Martin’s Saturday points hauls. For one so realistic about the balance of power in the sprints, Bagnaia could arguably have avoided his current situation simply by taking a damage-limitation approach on Saturdays.

With the benefit of hindsight, he would certainly have settled for a few seconds and thirds instead of falling off. But his biggest losses came early in the season, when the picture – including his edge on Sundays – wasn’t quite so clear.

But with all of that said, for 73 of MotoGP’s 75 years, worrying about how to handle sprints was not a skill Bagnaia would have had to master. Winning grands prix – and the occasional TT in the Netherlands or the Isle of Man – was always what earned you world titles. That is a fundamental part of the heritage MotoGP celebrated with such pride at Silverstone this year. There is an argument that the sprints have been a slap in the face to that heritage since they arrived in 2023.

Should Bagnaia win in Barcelona, he’ll have won 55% of this year’s Sunday races, still a shade behind the lowest percentage in the 10+ club

Just to put Bagnaia’s 10 grand prix wins in perspective, the other riders to have won 10 in a season in the top class – some of them multiple times – are Giacomo Agostini, Mick Doohan, Valentino Rossi, Casey Stoner and Marc Marquez. All of them went on to win the world championship in the seasons in question.

Before we erupt in outrage on Bagnaia’s behalf, though, note that in percentage terms Bagnaia hasn’t quite reached the level of his predecessors. Even disregarding sprints, there are more grands prix per season now than for any of those riders. In 1968, in fact, there were only 10 races and Agostini had a 100% record.

Should Bagnaia win in Barcelona, he’ll have won 55% of this year’s Sunday races, still a shade behind the lowest percentage in the 10+ club. That was Stoner’s 2007 effort, when he won 10 of 18 races at 55.56%.

Let’s factor in the sprints, just for fun. Despite all the focus on the points he has thrown away in that department, Bagnaia has still won six of them. That’s only one fewer than Martin, which does rather call into question the popular notion that the Spaniard is indisputably the fastest man on Saturdays.

Mistakes at costly times in sprints have hurt Bagnaia’s title prospects

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

It gives Bagnaia a total of 16 wins for the season, out of a possible 38 so far: that’s 42.1%. The Italian’s defenders will happily note that Martin’s seven sprints and three grands prix add up to an overall winning percentage of 26.32%.

You can play with these statistics all the way to Christmas, speculating about what might have been when we take other finishes and retirements into account. I’m going to stop now. The system is what it is, and while Bagnaia has done more winning by any measure, he has simply given away too many points – mostly on Saturdays.

The question is whether those Saturday mistakes have been accorded too much worth. Or, if you prefer, whether grand prix Sundays should be worth more – as per MotoGP heritage.

Well, firstly, it’s in the name. If you know any French at all, you’ll know that the grand prix of any country (or region or city) is supposed to be the big prize. It came with the definite article: le grand prix. There was only one. Semantics aside, a longer race brings tyre management into play – a skill many might feel a champion should have in their portfolio. Flat-out sprints don’t test that.

So let’s say something is indeed «wrong» with the system. What to do with the Saturday sprints?

Introduced to MotoGP two years after they appeared in Formula 1 in 2021, the extreme position would be to dismiss them entirely as an unnecessary attempt to copy what the four-wheelers were doing.

Statisticians and many media might be thankful for that, as sprints have given rise to all sorts of complications around records, statistics and choice of wording. Does ‘race’ mean grands prix only, for example? Does ‘Malaysian Grand Prix’ refer to the entire weekend or only the Sunday race? More importantly, could these questions confuse and alienate fans who have better things to do than dig around for definitions?

Another thing that might need a little audience research: could some fans walk away after being asked to invest Saturdays and Sundays in following the racing – and on an ever-growing number of weekends? Is there such a thing as too much? Most regular folk have lives outside of motorsport, a fact that decision-makers living in all-consuming paddocks might want to consider.

Most recent Grand Prix win came for Martin, who has proven to be a specialist in the shorter races to top up his tally

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

On the other hand, Saturday sprints can only be an attraction for those weighing up weekend passes to attend races. You have to assume that they help sell such tickets, which is certainly an argument against scrapping them entirely.

A more realistic approach could be to go all-in on copying F1. MotoGP has differentiated itself by running sprints at every single round while F1 stages them only at selected events. In the first two years of F1 sprints, there were only three ‘sprint weekends’. That has grown to six in 2023 and 2024 – exactly a quarter of the race weekends in this year’s case.

Under this model, sprints are seen as a special bonus that doesn’t detract from the main narrative. They can always be rotated between venues, or alternatively reserved for historic, blue-riband circuits like Jerez, Silverstone or Assen.

There’s a danger that pragmatic engineers would opt to treat non-points sprints as additional practice sessions

Another way to reduce the sprints’ impact on the championship would be to revisit the points system. Again, MotoGP could follow F1’s lead here. Under the current F1 weighting, a sprint win gets you eight points. That’s less than a third of the 25 points a grand prix victory earns.

MotoGP also offers grand prix winners 25, but every time somebody wins a sprint, they walk away with almost half that. Should a sprint win really be worth 12 points?

Another option could be to run the sprints but exclude them from the championship entirely. That way, you could still sell tickets for Saturdays and offer ‘content’ for hardcore fans who can’t get enough while sending the rest a clear message that these races are a non-essential bonus. An exhibition, if you like.

A short race in which there is nothing to lose seems like a fun solution on paper. And if they get a cracking show, it’s hard to imagine those ticket-holders complaining that it didn’t count for a championship.

Options exist to change up the sprint format, but it is a popular draw for fans looking to buy weekend passes

Photo by: Marc Fleury

But would teams get into the spirit of it, with no points at stake? There’s a danger that pragmatic engineers would opt to treat non-points sprints as additional practice sessions. It’s probably best to proceed with this idea only after extensive consultation with the competitors.

Another variant would be to add something like a ‘Sprint Cup’ to MotoGP’s extensive array of championships. That way, there would still be something bigger to fight for. It would be something a manufacturer’s marketing department could fix their attention on if it doesn’t quite work out at world championship grand prix level. That may have its commercial appeal.

After two years of the sprint format experiment, there is no shame in revisiting it. Bagnaia is unlikely to be the only person who thinks something is a little out of balance under the current model. And, as we’ve seen, there are alternatives.

Let’s remember that Bagnaia is among the smartest and most analytical personalities on the grid. He is also a true, fair sportsman who will graciously offer his hand in defeat, no matter what the format. He may have a particular bias when he says something is «wrong», but his words are carefully considered and are not spoken in the heat of a moment. Perhaps MotoGP’s powers-that-be ought to pay them due attention.

Will Bagnaia’s sprint protestations fall on deaf ears?

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images