F1 predictions for the 2025 triple-header finale

Three rounds remain in the 2025 Formula 1 world championship, which will decide who becomes the drivers’ world champion, plus a few other key honours.

This weekend’s Las Vegas Grand Prix kicks off a triple-header finale, followed by the Qatar GP (plus a sprint race) and then the season closer in Abu Dhabi. With so much to play for, and no doubt some surprises still in store, here’s what our writers predict from the final rounds of the season.

Who will win the F1 drivers’ world title? 

Ed Hardy: Lando Norris is doing everything a person would want from a title challenger. The McLaren driver has just found that extra step in recent races, while Oscar Piastri has gone the other way. Even if the Briton was to retire in Vegas, it’s doubtful that his team-mate would take full advantage given his current guise. 

Owen Bellwood: If Norris can overcome a run of bad results to transform his championship, why can’t Piastri? The Australian had a torrid time recently, and will no doubt have spent the past weeks away from the track working on his mindset to come back all guns blazing. Should he manage this, he has the skills to overturn the 36-point deficient he faces to his team-mate.  

Ronald Vording: Norris has already taken two of the three key steps after his engine failure in Zandvoort. Mentally, he appears stronger than before, with Q3 in Brazil as the clearest example. The Briton did not have a banker lap on the board, and whereas that more often than not went wrong in the past, he now secured pole. Secondly, he feels far more comfortable with the front of the car compared to earlier this year, which translates into more consistent performances. The third remaining variable: is he calm enough to finish it off? It’s the biggest challenge of his F1 career so far, but with his current form, he should be able to get the job done.

Ben Vinel: It all points to Norris. He’s 24 points ahead, he’s got the momentum, and he looks more confident than ever. Norris has outscored McLaren team-mate Piastri by 58 points over the latest six rounds, and Max Verstappen now seems to be too far to mount a credible challenge, unless something shocking happens.

One bold prediction for the triple-header 

EH: Yuki Tsunoda to stand on the podium — though, I admit, it’s more of a hope than a prediction. The 25-year-old is just a much better driver than his short Red Bull tenure has shown and it’s sad to see, because until then he was a very solid F1 racer at the sister squad. It’d be nice for him to finally claim a podium before he likely leaves at the end of 2025, giving Japanese fans something to celebrate before their next driver comes along.

OB: Lewis Hamilton will make the podium for Ferrari in one of the remaining three races – my money is on Las Vegas, but any of the remaining races will do. This might be wishful thinking, but the Brit has history in Sin City, and last year Ferrari took a strong third- and fourth-place finish – so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.  

RV: Andrea Kimi Antonelli to take his maiden F1 win. Granted: this may realistically be a prediction that needs to be pushed to 2026, but why not be a little bold? If Mercedes — just like last year — is the benchmark in the relatively cool Las Vegas conditions, then Antonelli cannot be ruled out. Yes, George Russell is still the favourite given his experience, but Antonelli has undoubtedly shown flashes of his immense talent. At Interlagos he also demonstrated notable maturity, both by staying off the wet kerbs during the sprint and by holding off the charging Verstappen on Sunday. So is the young Italian ready for the big one?

BV: In all honesty, I don’t believe much out of the ordinary will happen during those last three races, so I’ll go with Piastri failing to reach the podium in all three Sunday races. This would be surprising from this year’s seven-time grand prix winner, but Piastri hasn’t looked too convincing of late, and I believe this prediction is… not unlikely.

Who will finish second in the F1 constructors’ world championship?

EH: It’s hard to see Mercedes throwing away its 32-point advantage over Red Bull in the remaining races. Although Verstappen has every chance to win again this year, the Austrian outfit just isn’t getting anything from the second car while Mercedes has both drivers scoring. Not sure fourth-placed Ferrari is even worth talking about quite frankly. 

OB: Red Bull is flying with Verstappen, but in order to catch and pass Mercedes it will take a gargantuan effort from the Dutchman and a dramatic turn in fortunes for team-mate Tsunoda. I don’t see that happening, so I think second-place is all but secure for Mercedes at this point in the season.  

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images

RV: Mercedes. Red Bull Racing — or Max Verstappen Racing, as Russell jokingly put it — has made major progress since Monza, but Mercedes’ current buffer should be enough. Even more so because Las Vegas offers another track, or at least weather conditions, that should suit them. If Russell and Antonelli avoid silly mistakes, it should be enough. Verstappen is scoring the points almost single-handedly at Red Bull, whereas Mercedes — if Antonelli continues his current trajectory — has two drivers capable of scoring. Ferrari has stopped developing its 2025 car earlier than both Mercedes and Red Bull, making second place unlikely.

BV: Another not-particularly-bold take, but I’ll pick Mercedes. They now have a comfortable buffer on Red Bull and Ferrari, and Antonelli’s form has been ramping up. Adding the fact that they’re expected to perform strongly in Las Vegas, they should be able to see this through – but no surprise can be ruled out.

Who will finish sixth in the F1 constructors’ world championship? 

EH: Haas. It has a 12-point deficit to sixth-placed Racing Bulls, which is quite a lot with so few races left, but the American squad is on an upward trajectory. It has scored points in the last four grands prix and is capable of continuing that run with two strong drivers — it doesn’t take much for the situation to flip.

OB: My head says sixth place is safe with the strong pairing of Liam Lawson and Isack Hadjar, but recent results say that this might not be quite so sure. Haas is turning things around, and Oliver Bearman is well on his way to challenging Hadjar for the crown of most impressive rookie this year. So, fingers crossed, this change in fortunes for the American outfit is enough to make up the 12 points it’s currently lacking.  

RV: The battle for sixth in the constructors’ championship could truly go in any direction. One more standout result from Hadjar or Lawson would likely put Racing Bulls in a safe place, and given the seasons those drivers (especially Hadjar) have had, that cannot be ruled out. Still, I’d put my money on Haas. With the Austin upgrade, the American team has made a significant step, while most competitors had long shifted their focus to 2026. The package works as expected and is proving to be a powerful weapon — particularly in the hands of Bearman — making a 12-point gap far from impossible to overturn.

BV: That’s the trickiest one. There have been so many swings in performance as this battle unfolded that nobody can tell what’s going to happen. Everyone here has bet on Haas, so I’ll diverge and predict Racing Bulls will hang on. Momentum may be with Haas with its recent upgrade, but Racing Bulls has had better form overall this year and Lawson has picked himself up after his demotion from Red Bull. Still, it will be a tight one, and you can’t rule out Aston Martin if Fernando Alonso puts in a couple of remarkable drives.

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— The Autosport.com Team