The new F1 rule which makes Antonelli expect Ferrari to close in on Mercedes

Formula 1’s 2026 regulations have largely met expectations as Mercedes has been the dominant team with Ferrari and McLaren being its closest challengers. The Silver Arrows has won every grand prix from pole and Kimi Antonelli leads George Russell at the top of the drivers’ standings after three rounds, with Mercedes also 45 clear of second-placed Ferrari in the constructors’ championship.

There are several factors that have contributed to its success, but the main indicator is that power unit. It is understood to have an advantage of at least 15bhp over its Ferrari counterpart and the German marque has been better at harvesting battery power under the more electrical ruleset, allowing Antonelli and Russell to gain time through the corners.

Although McLaren is a Mercedes customer, the factory squad has found more performance from the power unit due to a greater base knowledge of the engine and it also doesn’t help the reigning champions that its MCL40 is overweight — unlike the W17.

But it is still early days and although the advantage Mercedes currently holds is significant — its average gap in qualifying is 0.497s — much of the paddock expects the situation to slightly change come the Miami Grand Prix next month.

That is because of the Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities (ADUO).

ADUO is F1’s new engine balancing system, which states that power units between 2% and 4% off the benchmark according to the FIA’s performance metric are allowed one specific upgrade. Those over 4% are granted more concessions and originally, the evaluation points were set for each quarter of the 2026 campaign: rounds six, 12 and 18.

Miami was scheduled to be round six, but has been brought forward due to the cancellations of the Saudi Arabian and Bahrain grands prix. So the exact timing for the first checkpoint is still under discussion — it could be either Miami or Monaco in June — but regardless, change is coming and because of it and Antonelli expects the competition to close as is the case with most regulation cycles.

“I know there will be major changes,” the championship leader, who has won the last two races in China and Japan, told Sky Sports. “For example, the ADUO that has been granted to Ferrari, which will allow them to develop the engine, they will definitely get much closer because their car is already strong.

“If they manage to improve the engine as well, they’ll close the gap even more. But I’m not too worried. In the end, once I get on track, I’ll focus on doing what I’ve done in the past race weekends: trying to be as fast as possible, focusing on myself and on what I have to do.

“I’m also sure that we will bring some important updates. The car is already strong and there’s a great dynamic within the team. So I’m not too worried, but I’m aware that the other teams will catch up sooner or later.”

It is exactly why Mercedes boss Toto Wolff isn’t getting carried away by his team’s start and comparing it to when the Silver Arrows won a record eight, straight titles from 2014-21 — particularly as the last regulation cycle demonstrated how quickly things can change.

Red Bull romped towards the 2022 and 2023 crowns, but was then out-developed by McLaren who ended the ground-effect era comfortably on top with the Austrian outfit also finishing behind Mercedes in the 2025 standings.

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Photo by: Artur Widak / NurPhoto via Getty Images

“We would have maybe wished that it (ADUO) continues over into the two Middle Eastern races and we can score a few more points,” Wolff joked in Japan.

“People have learned now, the teams have learned, drivers are starting to learn how to optimise these systems to their benefit and we’ve seen that first indication today.”

In Japan, McLaren’s Oscar Piastri was looking good for the win after a terrific start, but then Antonelli lucked out with a cheap pitstop under the lap 23 safety car to inherit the lead.

“What looked like a home run in the first two races for us isn’t the case and we’ve always warned,” added Wolff. “Miami is going to be, for me, also a restart. How are the upgrades going to work that people are bringing, how have we optimised all the other systems, it’s going to be exciting.  

“We need to stay feet on the ground, we’re three races in, we’re looking like the heroes. But three races from now on people could be saying, ‘well no heroes anymore because the others got stronger’.

“So I wouldn’t want at that stage to compare the successful era with what we’ve started here, but definitely we’d never stop believing that we would eventually land a car and build the structures that can do that with the right drivers and to see that finally coming together is nice.”

Additional reporting by Filip Cleeren

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